Digital Model for Diagnosing Learning Trajectories in Higher Education: Results of a Quasi-Experimental Study

The digital transformation of higher education often reduces to the automation of control without addressing the challenge of managing individual student development in the context of mass education. This study aims to empirically validate the SFS-LPS digital diagnostic model, which integrates a structural analysis of skill formation stages (Skill Formation Stage, SFS) based on N.A. Bernstein’s theory of level organization of skills, with an assessment of learning potential (Learning Potential Score, LPS) operationalizing L.S. Vygotsky’s concept of the zone of proximal development within the framework of dynamic assessment methodology.

An experimental study (N = 46, English language course, RUDN University) compared three groups: an experimental group (training using a digital loop based on the SFS-LPS diagnostic and correction matrix with graduated mediation), comparison group 1 (adaptive learning on an AI-platform without structural diagnostics), and comparison group 2 (traditional instruction). Quantitative methods (ANCOVA, Cohen’s effect size) and qualitative methods (thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews) were employed.

The experimental group demonstrated significantly higher gains in target competencies compared to the adaptive AI-platform (d = 0.94, p < 0.01) and traditional instruction (d = 1.42, p < 0.001). Qualitative analysis revealed a reduction in teachers’ time burden and frustration, along with a transformation of their role: the automation of routine diagnostics and initial remediation allowed them to focus on content-related and communicative tasks. Examples of individual trajectories illustrate that two-dimensional diagnostics enables differentiation of pedagogical strategies in cases where standard testing yields indistinguishable results.

The SFS-LPS model provides higher learning effectiveness compared to existing approaches, creating conditions for the transition from a control paradigm to a development paradigm in the digital didactics of higher education. However, the findings require further testing on larger samples, across different subject domains, as well as an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of content development and the sustainability of effects in longitudinal studies.

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